Intel Strategy for Achieving Wealth and Off Topic Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Intel Strategy for Achieving Wealth and Off Topic

INTC 37.81

-4.3%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: Frank Ellis Morris who wrote ()	3/30/1997 8:35:00 AM
From: FANMAN	of 27012

There are many examples where BUY and HOLD have underachieved because timing is critical. WALLMART,HOME DEPOT--buy 1986 great return...buy 1992,zippo XEROX in the 1950-60's is another good example. I buy and hold KO and G. Altho INTC also has market dominance, its product is not as simple and more prone to competitive pressures. WHEN to buy or sell INTEL??? One thing I look at is Historical High and Low P/E -----------------Hi Lo EPS P/E difference 1992-----------18 9 1.25 9 1993-----------14 8 2.60 6 1994-----------14 10 2.62 4 1995-----------19 8 4.03 11 1996-----------24 9 5.81 15 1997-----------18 ?10 9.30e ?8 I am using analyst Tom Kurlak's(Merril) 1997 EPS forecast which is above consensus. Using a low P/e of 10 which is about average for the past 5 years, intc should be 93 sometime this year. Of course, if the High P/E remains like 1996, we would see 220. How likely is this latter scenerio? You have to look at the general market. If 1997 is starting to remind you of 1994, The P/E difference should DECREASE. My analysis shows that we probably have already seen INTEL's 1997 high at 165. We will probably see 50 post-split before which I will start nibbling. I've been wrong before..but there it is.

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