At the risk of being disagreeable, I disagree with most of CYBERKEN's post. I think that the market has discounted to a large degree the effect of on-line access. The bubbles created around IOM and IDID last year were on-line phenomena. I sense that things have settled dramatically.
I love the mutual fund craze, because it causes huge, irrational swings. The index funds seem to be puffing a bubble. When it bursts, we'll all get hurt some.
I really like Michael Murphy and CTSL. He's a nice smart guy, and CTSL is well done. However, I don't have a clue how you make money with his rag. His "research" comes from standard sources that everyone has now. He seems to depend on analyst conferences for most of his insight. Theoretically this might put you in line with the mutual funds, but the typical letter-reader gets the information late, long after the market has discounted it. I find that I frequently disagree with his assessments of future course, and I often follow a very different universe of stocks for a given concept category. I personally think technology changes too rapidly to intelligently invest using a static source like CTSL. Frequently M.M. has to fill a page, and does so from an online source, whether the information merits being printed or not. Hence the casual reader will be baffled by the noise. My summary would be that if you are time-limited and rely on CTSL for information or advice, you don't have enough time to invest in high tech, and should stay away. If you like the journalism, or the high stakes gambling, subscribe. I read it a few times a year to see what other people are reading.
Lets face it, if ANY newsletter is really successful at predicting the future, the miracle of compound interest will quickly make the investments of the letter writer grow to where meeting a journalistic dead-line is diseconomic. For instance, Warren Buffett writes a wonderful essay once a year in his annual report. He usually comments on the PAST, and does great year after year. He doesn't need to predict the future publicly, he lives it.
My comments are the ravings of a recovered investment letter junkie:
Give it up, Live it up! |
