I believe that there is very little likelyhood (barring a major terrorist attack or war) that the NAZ will trade below 1,500 in 2002. So, I say NO.
The semis and chips are slowly recoving from last year's debacle and outlooks for 2003 that start hitting this summer will likely paint a more positive picture going forward. Also, as far as I can determine, the longterm trend line on the NASDAQ puts the NAZ at 1,600 or so in May, 2002. Of course 1,500 isn't too far off from the longterm trend of 1,600, so it's entirely possible. But, current scholastics charts show the NAZ to be moving into oversold territory. If it's going to happen, it will probably happen this month, before 2Q earnings season approaches or possibly in August, during the summer trading doldrums. |
