SELL??? Contrarian indicators in the market Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : SELL??? Contrarian indicators in the market

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To: Ted The Technician who wrote (2)	12/1/1996 2:59:00 PM
From: White Shoes	of 19

I don't have 'reliable indicators' other than the general sense conveyed by many observers and social scientists which would indicate that there are new reasons why inflation will not pose a threat, and new reasons (consumer debt, unemployment, economic strategies of trading nations) why we are sliding into a 'global demand crisis' based on a 'jobless growth model'. Long term (the next 10 years), we will probably see a low interest rate environment, and money coming into the markets, based on the demographics of the boomers, causing this bull to keep running, probably. The question is when does it all get too hysterical. You can never say. But I don't want to be in over my head when a correction (as opposed to permanent bear) hits to the tune of 20%. Most likely scenario is the bull runs for another 5-8 years, and then a long, long bear as punishment for this. Bear 20 years or more. It is these kinds of feelings that make people think "better make the money while I can" and will push the markets up another 100% when it is not warranted. At that point a big crash could come and thus the bear market could take hold earlier than expected, say in 3-4 years. In short, I'd guess a massive crash will take place if the market rises in the neighbourhood of 100% in any coming 3-year period.

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