Alper,
My guess is that we could sail through $20 in the next several months. Yes, I'm assuming that the breast cancer results will be positive and that Targretin sales ramp up fast. If Henry is right and it'll be on the shelves by the end of the month, the sales representatives are already loading their trunks with literature and samples. They're going to have a very busy time of it. And I'm sure they're received all sorts of lectures as to what they're allowed to say on their visits.
As I recall, the sales force is now up to 40. For any kind of sales force, you have to have at least something like $500K worth of sales per person for it all to make sense and it had better be a good deal higher than that. The low end of the sales figures is probably realistic for this year. But given the expected growth, the multiples awarded by the market might be quite high. It should definitely be higher than the average figure I used.
Also, if it does indeed look like we're heading for profitability this year, we should see some real price appreciation. Historically, the market likes to give a stock major appreciation in the year it is turning profitable. And with any luck, that is *this* year.
By the way, if Ligand does turn profitable this year, they'll have a significant kitty in the bank that they can spend on something and I wonder what they'll spend it on. I'm afraid to mention it, but Robinson *has* talked about another acquisition in the past...
Thanks, Torben |
