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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (29823)	2/21/2008 12:29:44 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) of 78669

Based on $80/barrel oil, this analyst values COP NPV at $124/share up from $112/share. At todays close of $81.60/share, COP appears to still be a great value play selling at a 50% discount from this analyst's estimated NPV. McDep LLC Independent Stock Idea January 23, 2008 mcdep.com From the report:"...Summary and Recommendation Despite seeing a steep decline in stock price for buy-recommended ConocoPhillips (COP), we believe the oil and gas company is financially strong, well-managed and undervalued in the market. Discussing fourth quarter results reported today that exceeded our projections, chief executive Jim Mulva appeared calm and confident. Those results support our December 18 increase in Net Present Value (NPV) to $124 a share from $112 a share prompted by an increase in long-term oil price for calculating present value to $80 from $66 a barrel. We also allowed for higher taxes to be imposed by the state of Alaska and the province of Alberta. We judge current stock market turmoil to be a financial problem, not a fundamental problem with the oil and gas industry or ConocoPhillips. Likely government responses to debt-stressed capital markets may keep oil price on its long-term uptrend. Meanwhile COP stock trades at the lowest McDep Ratio of at least our last dozen analyses of the company..." EKS

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