Jach, don't write off local access just yet either.
The number of additional new DS-3's being thrown around for
a single company looking to get into competitive local access
where I live is simply staggering - in the low 4 digits.
(I can't get into it much more than that. This is not a
rumored figure either.) The amount of money involved is
equally staggering. In order to carry that kind of traffic,
DWDM is going to end up going into a lot of places, as well
as the kind of optical switches that Tellabs and Lucent will
end up providing.
Just as DACS are the only way to go now regarding T-1, DS-1,
and subrate data interconnects - bye, bye wiring frames; so
too as you've stated with optical switches/interconnects.
Right now interconnecting sonet rings is very cumbersome.
To interconnect the rings, the signal has to be dropped from
optical to electrical, patched via coax cable, and then uplinked
back to optical for retransmission. The market for optical
interconnect switches is going to be huge just for this
single function alone.
And to confirm what you said on the data side, it's simply
amazing to me to see much of this new equipment and to see
the optical interfaces/and speeds (ie bandwidth) going in -
for example Sonet terminals connecting optical to ATM switches,
and then from there fiber-optically connecting to say a IBM AS/400
server. If you add in the the other options such as IP switching
directly over fiber you can see the strategic vision of a Tellabs
of selling a packaged-unified optical switch/DWDM product is
going to be a huge winner, and that Birck is the one who is
right here. If Tellabs shareholders are stupid enough to vote
this combination down, they are cutting their own damn throats
and I say to hell with them if that's how blind they are. Lucent,
Alcatel, Nortel, Pirelli, Cisco, Ascend, et al. will absolutely
drive them out of business because they'll be in this market niche
and that's where telecommunications/ networking is going...and
Tellabs and it's shortsighted shareholders will be out in he cold
looking in and wondering what if......
Regards, Peter.
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