Media Notes - Howard Kurtz
Stunning the Pundits
Tuesday, Feb 17, 2004; 11:28 PM
Two hours before the Wisconsin polls closed, the pundits started taking turns dumping on Howard Dean (four weeks after many of them expected him to win Iowa on the way to the nomination).
"Hardball" host Chris Matthews questioned whether Dean was "the dead cat brought in from the rain."
Lisa DePaulo said Dean was "like the aging rock star . . . who wants to stay in for another set."
Even Dean media adviser Steve McMahon, rather than push his man's prospects, said that "Howard Dean could be a kingmaker" by endorsing either John Kerry or John Edwards.
(Think these story lines aren't set in advance? As noted by Columbia Journalism Review's blog, a Knight Ridder/Tribune story moved at 8:42 Tuesday morning: "At 8:42 this morning, the CBS affiliate in Jacksonville, Florida posted on its website a Knight-Ridder/Tribune Business News wire story entitled, 'Dean's Campaign Hit with Another Blow after Wisconsin Loss.'")
The media are desperate for a two-man race -- not just because it's a better story line but because the alternative is no race, if Dean and Edwards keep splitting the non-Kerry vote.
The question, then, is was how well Edwards, who was on his way to losing his 16th out of 17 contests, would have to do for the prognosticators to award him a moral victory in Wisconsin (defined, perhaps, as the right to still be taken seriously).
The anchors and correspondents, by the way, did a lousy job of hiding the exit poll data they were supposed to sit on until 9 p.m. eastern, showing that Edwards was running a stronger second than anyone had expected.
CNN's headlines seemed to reflect the emerging spin.
8 p.m.: "Is this the end of the line for John Kerry's challengers?"
8:40 p.m.: "Does a close race tonight spell trouble for Kerry?"
When the polls closed, the cable networks faced a new situation for a marquee primary this year -- they couldn't instantly call the race.
"It has turned out to be a much closer election than anyone expected," said Fox's Brit Hume, projecting a 39-34 margin for Kerry over Edwards, with Dean at 18.
"A much closer race than many of us had expected," said CNN's Wolf Blitzer.
Translation: The press was so busy covering a Kerry-Bush race and awarding Edwards the No. 2 spot that its members had all but discounted the possibility of an Edwards surge. Shades of Iowa, where Edwards seemingly came out of nowhere to finish within 4 points of Kerry.
"You now have a single lone challenger in John Edwards," said MSNBC's Howard Fineman.
Old media consensus: Edwards was too positive, too unwilling to draw contrasts with Kerry, and so must be running for VP, or 2008.
New media consensus: Edwards is such a good and likable campaigner that he closes strong when he has the time to spend in a state.
Maybe this is an advertisement for newspaper editorials. The Des Moines Register endorsement gave Edwards a boost in Iowa, and the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel endorsement clearly helped Edwards in Wisconsin.
Maybe there are "two Americas," as the North Carolina senator says -- one with pundits and their predictions, and one with actual voters.
Maybe Kerry's wordy style, which made a comeback in Sunday's debate, is hurting him.
Or maybe the people of Wisconsin just wanted to keep the race going.
Another question: When are journalists going to stop treating tracking polls as gospel, especially in primary elections where turnout is an unknown factor? Late last week, MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby had Wisconsin as Kerry 47, Dean 23, Edwards 20. Such surveys set the bar high for Kerry and fairly low for Edwards.
Sixteen minutes after the voting ended, Edwards was doing a victory lap, so to speak, on "Larry King Live."
Trumpeting the Feb. 26 debate that he will moderate in L.A., King said: "Are you going to have to take on John Kerry that night?"
"I will make distinctions between John Kerry and myself," Edwards said, but "I won't in any way be personal."
"What happened to John Dean?" King asked.
"Howard Dean?" said Edwards. A "good man" with a "powerful voice." (Not a reference to The Scream, I'm sure.)
Bob Dole popped the question: "Is Senator Kerry on your short list for a running mate?"
How quickly the Zeitgeist shifts, even in jest.
Next up: Chris Matthews, who wondered how Edwards could get Kerry into a two-man shootout. "You and other people in the media can play an important role in this," Edwards said.
"You have to take this guy down a little bit to beat him," Matthews insisted.
"It is important for me to point out the differences. . . . But the bottom line is, we're both Democrats." Matthews began gushing over how fresh the candidate looked.
Moments later, Fox's Sean Hannity told Edwards: "This is a very big night for you." Hannity endorsed the idea of a head-to-head debate against Kerry.
"Any time," said Edwards.
"What will you do to try to pressure him to accept that nomination?" Hannity asked.
"All I can do is challenge him," said Edwards.
Notice how making the cable rounds has become a greater priority for presidential candidates than thanking their supporters?
As the night wore on, it sounded more and more like Edwards had won by 20 points.
"John Edwards is the hot property right now," said Pat Buchanan, while Kerry was "on the canvas."
Lisa DePaulo said Edwards was "endearing," while Dean was "nasty."
"I think he is a stronger candidate against George W. Bush than John Kerry," Hannity declared.
By 9:50, CNN, Fox and MSNBC were all declaring Kerry the winner, even as the raw vote totals showed him and Edwards in a 38-38 tie. But the numbers almost didn't matter. The story line for the evening -- Edwards rising -- had been set.
"I think that this keeps Edwards very much in the game," InstaPundit Glenn Reynolds wrote minutes after the projections were made. "Even more importantly, it will keep pundits happy, which is why I'm sure that this will be spun as an Edwards victory, regardless."
Dean came out and told his supporters that "we are not done," but he sounded more like a man describing his legacy.
Edwards emerged with a huge grin, almost giddy, and declared that Wisconsin voters "want someone who will stand up and fight for them."
But in a bit of televised hardball -- breaking the unspoken pact in which candidates time their appearances so each gets his moment in the spotlight -- Kerry came out a minute later, pulling the plug on Edwards as the cameras switched to him.
"He's the winner, no matter how you slice it and dice it," CNN's Aaron Brown said. "But expectations count."
Kerry gave his usual serious speech, and if you had the sound off, you might have gotten the impression that he had lost and the beaming Edwards had won. I sort of wanted a split-screen so I could have heard more of Edwards.
In the end, this night might be a blip on the way to a Kerry coronation in Boston. But it demonstrated once again how the prediction-happy press keeps underestimating candidates -- Dean on the way up, Kerry when he was down, Edwards in Iowa and now Edwards again. |
