The Chinese baby gap continues
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
INTERNATIONAL: "Chinese Bias for Baby Boys Creates a Gap of 32 Million," by Sharon LaFraniere, New York Times, 11 April 2009.
The social unrest argument regarding this disparity is always quite tempting, but as I have written several times in the past, I don't believe it will be the great stress that experts make it out to be. Why? Much of that excess male population will be rural based and when personal situations get dire enough, they will emigrate as essentially economic refugees even as the desire for more opportunity for a mate will play a big part. Most of China's illegal migration flow to the outside world comes in the form of rural males who simply bug out on the basis of no opportunity. Second, you'll see with China the same thing we've seen with South Korea and Japan: guys will seek out and marry foreigners, concentrating regionally. Koreans do this on junkets to Vietnam in serious numbers today. If you think this is too much of a cultural leap, let me note that Chinese males working in 19th century America did the same in large numbers, with a particular taste for Irish Catholic women! In short, where there is a will, there's a way. Plus, China's government will come up with programs to facilitate such accommodations, to be sure. Finally, keep the whole concept in perspective: 32m males represents two percent of China's population, and these males will not be casually tossed on the bonfires of war when they have two parents and four grandparents to care for. |
