<<Looks phenomenally good to me. There is resistance at 40, probably due to the body of analyst opinion out there looking at 40 as a price target. Undoubtedly a good quarter for Novell, coming on top of the motherlode of all releases of directory based products, will cause numerous upgrades from analysts. If Novell were to beat earnings expectations and see any significant revenues from any of its new product lines then we enter new territory.
There is just no telling what kind of break-out we would get to the upside.>>
I remember a few posts here recently when NOVL was added to Gilder's list. Posts to the effect that the run up was a knee-jerk reaction to being added to the list, and that any company added would experience the increase, so NOVL's potential in the "Telecosm" was not the real driver of that run up in price, all stocks added to the list ran up initially via a herd effect. This is absolutely not true.
An example of this would be LSI Logic. Added to the list in July 1997 at 31 1/2. I watched it for a while. Watched it fall to below 20 during the next year, and then purchased, thinking we had hit rock bottom. LSI then warns in August 1998, and it tumbles to I think 10 or 11.
Gilder never wavered, and in fact reiterated that LSI would be leaders in ASICs and CDMA chip sets, that SELECT, key Internet infrastructure providers (LSI being one) would be the real creators of wealth. (Meanwhile, Jubak on the Microsoft Money site recommended selling out in the teens).
This afternoon, LSI touched 110 briefly, and will split 2 for 1 next week. Driven purely by Internet products in conjunction with solid earnings increases.
I think it is just a matter of time before Novell experiences this same type of explosive move, only more sharply upward. NOVL has similar key pieces of the internet infrastructure, and they don't have to worry about fab equipment and mfg. processes. They just need to continue to work on drawing the simplest picture possible to enable the non-technical investment community to understand the power and potential of what they are now offering in the Internet space.
jww |
