Nice post, Paul.
I would tend to use far more conservative numbers for ramp-up,
on the basis that this is a new technology and "it always takes
longer and costs more".
Time-to-market for a typical OEM could be 6 months or more, given
that they may have to run two or more design cycles, plus molding time, purchasing, production ramp on the OEM end, etc. Also, it's probably the case that not all OEM's will make their own batteries, adding another uncertainty.
With other PC devices, time from first silicon to product on
shelves is at least six months, and can be a year or more.
Lev's right that getting PO's is on the critical path ... but once
the PO's are in hand, the OEMs have their own network of tasks.
The OEMs will certainly stage their orders to fit their production
schedule, so VNLC will not be recognizing revenue until the cells
go out the door ... e.g., 3 days before the OEM wraps them in plastic.
All these things push the schedule out farther than one might guess.
And certainly some OEMs will move faster than others.
Is there anybody here who knows the details of going from cell to product? |
