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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 314.52

-0.6%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (30376)	5/11/2006 1:59:43 PM
From: etchmeister	of 95572

The firm said the current industry fundamentals are postive, but visibility for late 2006 and early 2007 is inadequate. In addition, Susquehana reported growing semiconductor inventories this morning. Samsung just provided an update for rest of 2006 - though it's only a forecast it was extremely encouraging for DRAM as well as for NAND and what is nice the price trend confirms Sammy's outlook - 512Mbit (64Mbx8) DDR2-533 up a whopping37% year to date.. and NAND is starting to firm up. To me there is nothing in memory land that would confirm excessive inventory built - once again Sammy stated that NAND inventory correction is more or less completed. Sammy's spent 30% of its semiconductor capex in Q1 though memory portion was 36% and logic was relatively low. To me the Samsung presentation contains a ton of useful info that is in contrast to the financial community - I'm waiting for Mr. Goldman to come out of closet swinging the whip. Even VLSI confirms favorable price trend (CPPI). One problem TSMC has noted is doublebooking - the rootcause for doublebooking is tight capacity. And of course Samsung account should be one of Lam's crown jewels... dramexchange.com

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