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Non-Tech : Any info about Iomega (IOM)?
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To: mgsam who wrote (3004)6/15/1996 4:21:00 PM
From: Joe Rizzo   of 58324
 
Fernado, very thorough analysis. A lot of information exists in the public domain that can be assimilated into a congent analysis. Your analysis illustrates this. My first thought is: God I hope you're right and Iomega does only $1.1 billion versus the widely circulated numbers of $1.5 to $1.6 billion. My opinion is the stock trades to $20 or approximately a $2.9 billion valuation if sales are only $1.1 billion and the tech sector gets sloppy as I believe. (For the record I have been a super bull on technology stocks since January, 1994; but now I can not even go to a party without people wanting to talk to me about stocks that have 4 letter symbols.) My second thought is I'll believe that people buy 5-6 disks at the same time as they purchase the drive when I see it. I know I won't and chances are that I am in the higher range of disposable income spent on computers and things.
Lastly, With Syquest lowering prices and additional OEM penetration I think $110 per drive and $11.08 per disk will turn out to be too high.

Finally, your analysis illustrates the problem for the bulls; zip sales in June have to be double those in January and your revenue number is still well below the consensus. I think this is an excellent frame of reference. Next time someone says that zips are flying off the shelves at all these computer stores, please include whether or not they are flying off at twice the rate of January sales.
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