In keeping with your desire to have people post here as well as Raging Bull, a repost of my response to your question on RB about my thoughts on the action of late.
BTW, did you notice that you were like the ONLY person that commented on my post?? Duhhh, what's with that?? It's like all these people are thinking the same thing, you know?, and those thoughts may have some, like, bad Karma? and when one of them, like, voices those thoughts?, the others like stay silent???
Anyway, here it goes:
First, the market reaction really wasn't that negative. Keep in mind, we were in the 30s/low 40s pre-Tanners, pre-RSI announcements and went well over a dollar. We are eroding now, to be sure, but the stock did get a pop.
Here are the camps, as I see them.
1. The group that believes this company has a great future, irrespective of the acquisition of FB. I am a part of this group.
2. The OC types who feel that FB is the key and believe that RTIN will acquire FB.
3. The OC types who feel that FB is the key and don't believe that RTIN will get FB. This is the group that is selling now.
At present, groups 1 and 2 are not buying enough to overcome group 3 selling. Thus, the stock has been falling.
If RTIN does NOT acquire FB, then the selling will be increased since it will then be group 1 vs groups 2&3. Additional news will be mandatory, not to mention new buyers who know nothing nor care about FB.
If RTIN does acquire FB, then the stock will take off again. This will happen for the wrong reason though,IMHO.
Some believe the two recent acquisitions INCREASE the likelihood of FB going through, since these deals enhance the credibility of RTIN as a viable company, etc. Some believe that the acquisitions DECREASE the likelihood of FB going through, since they made these acquisitions recognizing that without FB, they are a shell and needed something to fill it and to pacify frustrated shareholders. Some believe that the acquisitions have NO EFFECT on the likelihood of FB going through, since the resources to make these two acquisitions don't necessarily impact on the resources to acquire FB,i.e., deferred issuance of restricted stock for RSI and only 450K out of pocket for Tanners and the potential for alternative financing for FB.
There are credible arguments for all three of the above beliefs. So, what to believe?
Recognizing that all of this will be a non-issue soon since the SEC filings will clear it all up in a few days, I will nevertheless throw in an opinion. Based totally on my anecdotal observation of the OTCBB scene in general and the modus operandi of RTIN management in particular, I reach the following prediction.
EVERY time long awaited acquisitions/news has been delayed AND new acquisitions have filled that news vacuum, THEN the original anticipated event is NOT achieved, but is quietly swept under the rug and forgotten.
Believe me, I would like nothing better than to wipe the egg off my face with and eat this axiomatic crow, but that is how I see things near term.
Nevertheless, after the FB whiners bail, a new day can dawn and we can proceed forward. One day, we shall drink to that future, in Valhalla.
TG |
