Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: tradermike_1999 who started this subject	3/31/2003 10:55:07 AM
From: energyplay	of 74559

Markets to react to SARS this week ? From TheStreet.com Tero Kuittinen The Stand 3/31/03 10:03 AM ET This could be the week when the markets start pricing in the SARS impact; the epidemic has so far been ignored as the war issues dominate news coverage. Hong Kong is developing an ominous hockey stick trend -- about 20 new infections last Monday, 50 or so on Friday and 90 today. Until this weekend there was a chance that SARS infections are mainly driven by people who have visited mainland China, but the new cases seem to indicate that the virus is burrowing into mainstream population. These are decisive days for the Asian spread of the virus; just four days ago it looked like the whole thing might be contained to visitors to Guangdong and their immediate family. Maybe the most alarming thing here is the possible emergence of “superinfectors” -- people who seem to spread the virus far more effectively than was originally thought. There was the Vietnamese hospital where a single man seemed to infect dozens of health care professionals; and now the Amoy Gardens hotspot in Hong Kong seems to involve more than 200 cases in a single apartment complex. It’s hard to avoid the impression that the virus might not need direct contact to spread after all. What makes SARS worrying is its comparative stats – whereas the 1967 flu pandemic had about 0.1% mortality rate, the SARS figure is now pinned at 3%; thirty times higher. The 1967 flu was the last serious global respiratory outbreak and killed around 700 K, though air travel was still in its infancy. Influenza had an incubation period of 1-3 days, whereas the SARS incubation period has been mooted as high as 10-14 days in some cases. The long incubation period compared with a relatively high mortality rate is a lousy combo. The biggest worry outside Asia is now Canada; the disease might be establishing a foothold in Ontario. This week is probably going to be a decisive period for the investors -- if the North American situation deteriorates, SARS is going to become an issue; if it’s contained in Ontario, the fears are likely going to recede. Airlines, hotel chains, luxury good companies and restaurant chains are likely subjects of speculation if Hong Kong consumer patterns are anything to go by. This is my last week on the site –- I’d like to thank my colleagues and readers for the past three years. It’s been a blast. I owe you guys a lot; I’d never have landed a Wall Street job without the contacts and the practice with English I’ve had from my e-mail flow. I'm going to miss you a lot -- from cranky Austin Intel engineers to philosphical Buenos Aires fund managers.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next