As of last night, the 20-day and 200-day moving averages
have been within a nickel or so of each other at about
34.40, and flat as a board, just like MU has been for the
past month. The 50-day moving average is about 32.75 and
rising maybe 5c per day.
To many TA folks, a cross of the 50-day moving average
and the 200-day moving average is a very significant
signal. I myself see its validity being a
self-fulfilling prophecy, but it is what it is. In MU's
case, the last time this crossing happened was about six
months ago at 35 or so on the way down. In hindsight, it
seems that Big Money actually steered it straight up for
no reason whatsoever except to fool a bunch of longs as
they forced that crossing, because MU never had a chance
from that point down to 22.
I will be watching the 50- and 200-DMA's very closely the
next few days. When (1) we see them cross, and (2) MU
spends a day below the 50-DMA after the crossing, the net
is gonna have an El Nino of downgrades falling from the
heavens.
I see the crossing as inevitable within two weeks. Fido
and friends will have a lot of explaining to do if they
are holding this one on March 31, and they don't like
explaining. But I will max out my credit cards and go
long if it doesn't happen and MU closes above a the
crossing, because the only thing stronger than this TA is
a *failure* of this TA. The amount of time and volume of
MU spent jacking around at 33-35 has built a level of
support/resistance that could last for months.
Easy charting of MU over any time period, with three MA's
of your choice, at
investools.com |
