I agree, we have to watch the travel situation carefully going forward, but so far I'm feeling good.
Of the four categories you mentioned, I'm only in hotel stocks for now. I'd consider rental car agencies too but haven't jumped in yet. I like these two business-related areas because I think employment is becoming more consultant/contractor oriented on the whole, and that trend leads to more business travel and therefore more hotels and rental cars.
Cruises are not business-related, so I'm staying away for now.
The airlines are in trouble I think. I fly about every other week, and the talk I hear is that Fuel prices are going to drive the companies into the ground, which is why the bigger companies are trying to merge. But, the pilots aren't wanting to give up their seniority and prime routes in a merger, so there are obstacles to the merging. My understanding is that southwest has oil hedged for a few years, but eventually I think even it will feel the pinch. In the meantime, if mergers don't happen, I'd expect a couple of these airlines to go bankrupt if fuel prices stay high as higher prices won't be able to be passed on to consumers without mergers.
But, I could be wrong. Southwest is my favorite airline to fly, so I hope they continue to do well.
-cwillyg |
