ADTN - If you really want to own something in this space, IMO, you should buy CSCO. Everyone else is most likely going to end up as a roadkill at some point in time.
Tech is very bad place to be for relative values. IMO, there are few ways to invest in tech:
- Supergrowth: GOOG at IPO, MSFT, GRMN, etc. in their growth phase. You have to close your eyes to valuations though.
- Fallen supergrowth that will recover. ADBE when it fell in the 1999, usual suspects in 2002, perhaps MSFT, GOOG, CSCO now.
Both groups above are usually Gorillas/Kings per Geoff Moore.
- Small cap niche players. These you can buy at supervalue prices and expect them to recover.
The companies in the middle who are not G/Ks and not small and niche enough usually end up dead. In the best case someone buys them, but this happens very infrequently. |
