Working All Day, But Trading Behind the Bosses Back Thread Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Working All Day, But Trading Behind the Bosses Back Thread

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To: puborectalis who wrote (305)	1/29/1999 11:09:00 PM
From: Mark[ox5]	Read Replies (1) of 779

TUTS is AWRE with IPO hype... not even as good as AWRE...(but it has deep pockets of INTC and MSFT so they can lose money indefinately).. but it has small float, and IPO hype ... so in this market it could be a $200 stock I guess. It's hit and miss on the 2nd/3rd tier stocks.. I see that with ABOV and EXDS... very similar companies, identical revenue growth rates, EXDS has a few bigger name companies signed & 2-3x revenue stream at this point... but it doesnt justify ABOV trading at 1/7th to 1/8th market cap of EXDS. EXDS goes up 30% yesterday, ABOV up 2%. Why? Same niche... one is known, one is unknown. It's all about the hype and whats the flavor of the month. If ABOV had IPO'd today it would of done the same thing. In fact AWRE will be providing the ISDL connection for AOL customers... I dont think you get a more prestigious contract than that. 5 minute analysis: AWRE has 2x the revenue of TUTS AWRE is first to market AWRE lost 2M in 1998 vs 9M for TUTS AWRE has won a contract with biggest and most influential ISP provider in the world If I gave you a scrap of paper with these facts... which co. would you pick. Before you argue that TUTS is supported by INTC and MSFT, and Aware is not... I will say, yes you are right and that is a major bonus and would help any company. I would then further argue, as we saw in the discussion about Checkpoint software, that company's technology is beating a cartel led by MSFT and Citibank.... so take it for what its worth. For internet 2nd and 3rd tier stocks its all about being the flavor of the month... only the blue chips will eventually survive, buying out a lot of these smaller ones. That said, I like the future of ISDL (not as much as cable modems, but a good niche none the less) but once again we are dealing with internet, where raw numbers dont mean much and internet chatter and CNBC mentionings do. Good luck & I never buy IPOs within the 1st week of trading...most dump at least 20%, Mark

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