A turn for the dangerous
May 20, 6:42 PM
The standoff between Israel and Iran became even more dangerous May 19th, with Tehran's successful test of a medium-range, solid-fueled missile.
Iranian officials and state media announced the launch of the Sajjil-2 rocket, which was fired from the Semnan test range, located east of Tehran. Footage of the launch showed a two-stage missile, lifting off from a mobile launcher. Iranian radio quoted President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as saying the missile "landed precisely on its target." Ahmadinejad made the comments during a visit to the city of Semnan, near the test complex, and there was some speculation that the Iranian leader attended the test launch.
With a maximum range of 1,200 miles, the Sajjil-2 is capable of hitting striking Israel, much of the Middle East and some locations in southeastern Europe. Tehran says that the missile has an advanced navigation system, making it more accurate than its predecessors.
While the navigation claim has not been verified, western experts have confirmed that the new missile is a solid-fueled system, giving Iran improved capabilities to strike distant targets. Until now, Iran's long-range strike capabilities have been largely based on liquid-fueled systems like the Shahab-3. Missiles that utilize liquid propellant are more dangerous to operate and their launch preparation time is considerably longer.
Why is that significant? With the Shahab-3 (and shorter-range SCUD variants), it was more difficult for Iran to conceal missile activity. Fueling a Shahab-3 in the field can take almost a hour--even longer under certain conditions. During that time, the missile and its crew are vulnerable to detection and attack by enemy intelligence and air assets.
Additionally, the presence of fuel trucks and support vehicles increases the "signature" of deployed missile units, giving surveillance crews another indicator of pending launch activity. The problem is also compounded by the design of some Iran's older transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) vehicles, which cannot elevate a fully-fueled missile to firing position. Under that scenario, the liquid-fueled missile must be raised vertically before fueling, making it easier to spot, from the air or on the ground.
Deployment of the Sajjil-2 will eventually eliminate those problems. Solid-fuel is far less volatile and can be stored in the missile airframe for longer periods of time. Elimination of fuel trucks and other support vehicles reduces the operational signature, making it easier for the missile crew to remain undetected. And, most importantly, a solid-fueled system has a much shorter response time, making it ideally-suited for a surprise attack.
Consider this possibility: A fully-fueled (and armed) Sajjil-2 emerges from its underground bunker near Bakhtaran, some 200 miles southwest of Tehran. Moving to a pre-surveyed launch site, the missile crew quickly raises the Sajjil-2 to firing position, and launches the missile. Within seconds, Defense Support Program (DSP) satellites detect the sold-fueled missile, which is already in flight. A warning is instantly transmitted to Israeli leaders--and their missile defense forces--but the reaction time is already measured in seconds, rather than minutes.
Iran has long claimed that its missile and nuclear programs are for "peaceful" purposes, but the capabilities of the Sajjil-2 suggest otherwise. Put another way, the missile tested today is an ideal weapon for a "bolt from the blue" attack, a fact that isn't lost on the Israelis, or Iran's neighbors in the Persian Gulf. The successful test of the solid-fueled medium-range missile will only accelerate regional attempts to acquire advanced air defense systems (with anti-missile capabilities) and a potential nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
Some analysts down-played today's launch, noting that Iran has had medium-range missiles--and the ability to strike Israel--for roughly a decade. But the successful test of the Sajjil-2 (and its pending deployment) affirm Tehran's plans to upgrade its missile arsenal, and develop a true, first-strike capability. Those developments will only further destabilize the Middle East, and raise prospects for a preemptive, Israeli attack.
For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the implications of today's test couldn't be more clear. The same missile that can now deliver chemical or biological weapons with minimal warning will some day be outfitted with a nuclear warhead. Meanwhile, President Obama has stated that he will give Iran "until the end of this year" to change its ways, or face the possibility of new sanctions. The Iranian missile test had been planned for several months, but it offered a dramatic retort to Mr. Obama's plan.
As for Mr. Netanyahu, he doesn't have the luxury of time--or geography.
Norfolk Military Affairs Examiner: A turn for the dangerous (22 May 2009)
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