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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics

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To: ajtj99 who wrote (30569)2/17/2002 5:46:36 PM
From: I. N. Vester  Read Replies (3) of 99280
 
I think 35 was BRCD max pain, and when it started sinking,
the delta hedging certainly added to selling pressure.

But I would not ignore the BRCD earnings and CC. Most of
the analysts were on record as having them exceed their
numbers for the Q and the CEO is well known for being one
of the most eloquent pumpers. I think there was a
reasonable chance for the stock to go higher. In fact,
i'm sure it would have had they beat the number as was
rumoured. Even as it was, the am after the call it
still hit 34 even after trading 1.5-2 lower in AH and
subsequently dropping like a stone. It's quite possible
imo, that they could have even ended the week near 35 if
they had met expectations and promised the sky going
forward.

But now the 'shine' is off. CEO was not too upbeat and
with a 70 PE, they really needed to keep up the appearance
of being able to hit on all cylinders in order to keep
their place as a large cap tech stock of choice with the
fund managers.

I look forward to seeing how quickly and how far it drops.
The next question for me is, can it rebound from the upper
or mid 20's to get back to 32 or above on the next upswing?
I guess that depends on how heavily it is sold and whether
it breaks down from the 27 area or finds good support there,
as well as how the Naz itself fairs.

Any thoughts? Don't you think that it should at least get
a momentary bounce back to the bottom of the breakdown
area, say 31-32?
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