hi, tom, the company is considered so far the no. 1 producer for dwdm systems. it has 200m cash on hand, zero long term debt, explosive revenue growth ( it will slow down a bit due to more competitions), current ratio was 5 plus, increase of new customers (from 2 to 11). but it is not a riskfree stock. there is no such thing, right? there are many industry heavy weight try to get into this market. they have the financial/tech muscle to do that. it happens to any other markets. the best bet for cien is to have a merger with a good sized company to keep and increase their market share. cien is a young company. it is experiencing growing pains. often times young company management cannot keep up with the high growth it enjoys. i believe its mgt. will be able to find the solutions for its problems, or more seasoned company will do it for cien. the reason why i am interested in cien is its red hot products. at this price level it is a steal, imo. as people said do not fight against the tape. it is true in some sense, but then you become a momentum player. you rush into a certain stock because everyone is buying, you get out after everyone is dumping. the tape and its followers tend to overreact. the problem is you are always a follower, always too late. i believe in doing my own research. hopefully i can buy before the street recognizes the value and get out or even short before the tape. it is very difficult to do, but not impossible.
just for your reference. good luck.
william |
