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Politics : President Barack Obama
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To: stockman_scott who wrote (30812)9/6/2008 9:08:28 AM
From: Bread Upon The Water  Read Replies (2) of 149317
 
Big story in today's (9/6) Wall Street Journal as to why McCain has an excellent shot at capturing Michigan.

Reasons are:

1. Michigan is home to the original Reagan Democrats. While these people dislike George Bush McCain is said to play well with them and moderate Republicans and Independents.

2. Michigan has "some of the most complex race relations North of the Mason-Dixon line". Pollster Mark Grabner states that "Obama does not do well among whites in places with poisonous race relations". "Portland, Oregon, is exactly the kind of place where Obama does well among whites" whereas in Detroit "Obama does not do well among white people".

3. The exodus of black people from Detroit. Detroit has lost more than 80,000 people since the last election.

4. Those who voted for Hillary (in Michigan) are said to not easily transfer their allegiance to Obama.

5. Affirmative action does not play well in Michigan. In an election held in 2006. voters eliminated preference for minorities in hiring and college admissions by 58% to 42% margin and this was so even in Democratic predominant counties.

6. The Obama campaign's refusal to provide "street money" in Detroit to talk him up is seen as elitist. Article quotes 1 Detroit resident who says that volunteerism is for those who can afford to volunteer.

If McCain wins Michigan (which has voted Democratic the last 20 years) it forces Obama to win 3 or 4 previously held red states (Colrado, Nevada, and Virginia, or just Ohio).
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