I suggest people take a serious look at both GNVC and IMGN, both have started what could be big moves over the next few years.
GNVC had fallen to less than 10% of what it achieved before ASCO in 2007 on a lack of funds and news. The recent improvement I believe is based on publicly available documents from Homeland Security indicating a sole source contract for their Foot and Mouth Vaccines that should lead to a big procurement of the drug in November. While the drug will be made by another manufacturer, they'll have to either licence from or partner with GNVC to deliver it unless the terms of Homeland Security ordering it are already established. Either way, GNVC should see significant funding from this vaccine.
ASCO 2009 will bring the full data for 92 events in the Phase III TNFerade trial. While the limited information originally tanked the stock, even it has been shown to be far superior to anything currently approved for Pancreatic Cancer. I believe the complete data will be far more impressive and lead to the belief that it will be approved on 184 event data. The 184th event is estimated to occur late this year. Approval could come in 2010. The use of this drug is not limited to Pancreatic Cancer, earlier trials in Esophagial and Head and Neck cancers are extremely impressive, it will probably apply to many others as well.
IMGN's story is even simpler, it's conjugate of Herceptin, T-DM1 is producing great results in all the trials Genentech/Roche are running. Approval is very likely next year from early data in the Phase II Trials which are registrational, or the Phase III which recently started.
While on a percentage basis I believe GNVC can be bigger, it probably has somewhat more risk than IMGN, but right now the greatest part of my portfolio is in GNVC. Both of these companies have platform technologies and many drugs in development, those I've discussed are the most advanced but I recommend looking at the whole picture.
Gary |
