Larry, your $-41 should really be -$.98 per share, and since I do not think they have much else less to sell (but who knows, they may find a sucker for Lehi and turn this mini disaster to a victory), , in order to be a worst quarter, MU will need to do worse than this quarter. I am not sure if that is very likely. Their rate of cost reduction continues, their increase in 64 chips wafer starts continues as well. The other side of the equation is how fast will DRAM decline from here. If the recent mini acceleration was indeed due to Korea (and I should add MU) rushing to market with excess inventories, these might be a tad depleted, and maybe just maybe, the rate of price decline will not be as fast as cost reduction. Than you might indeed have have a lower operating loss than this buck per share this quarter.
I won't even guess what the price will do.As you have mentioned, the SOX seems to be making a tepid effort at reversing, but I think it is just a DCB. If the sox doe break back under 290, I think the down trend will continue and with it we may have MU in the higher 20's this time next month. Around 28 or so, there could be a lot of short covering.
Zeev |
