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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 168.09+1.8%Nov 28 9:30 AM EST
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To: Boplicity who wrote (30848)5/25/1999 10:34:00 AM
From: Clarksterh  Read Replies (1) of 152472
 
Greg - It is definitely true that the capacity of cell systems is bandwidth limited and thus a steady 64 kbps will use about 3-5 times as much of the limited commodity. But, in reality, data traffic like web surfing tends to be much more bursty and thus a web surfer with a peak rate of 64kbps probably has an average rate about the same as voice.

In addition there are several other mitigating factors:

1) Economics - As bandwidth per square mile becomes less limited and cheaper, there will be a surfeit of minutes available. Even at $0.005 per minute there is only so much talking I can do, and I will happily pay an occasional rate 4 or 5 times that to surf in the airport at 256kbps, especially if I am a salesmen who is rarely home. In general I think that we cross this boundary to data for a given population when that same population has done all the talking they want. For salesmen I think that they have already reached that point, but we probably won't cross it for the more general population for another few years.

2) Technology and bandwidth limitations - Within the next 10 years I expect smart antennas to significantly increase the bandwidth available per square mile and bring the cost down enough to compete with, at least, xDSL. This should put most of the population over the boundary positted in the first item.

FWIW

Clark
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