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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (30936)	5/13/2008 8:09:06 PM
From: Madharry	Read Replies (1) of 78673

yep its all very interesting. I went to the hard assets conference and one of the more interesting guys was someone by the name of ian mcavity or something like that. anyway he he seeems to be a market technician who hates just about everything but financials worst of all. He makes a pretty compelling case that even fundamentally its hard to see how the real estate market which seems inevitable that it continue to decline can be a positive for banks nor can the lack of liquidity for derivative products and even good loans. the banks needs to make a leveraged safe spread somewhere but where? I just wonder what it is that whitman and his analysts can figure out that noone else can seem to. I saw a chart somewhere about how all weve seen so far are the subprime problems, but we havent seen the alt a , and pay what you want reset problems yet. this guy mcavity is saying the us banks have acknowledged mortgage problems, european banks have acknowledged mortage problems, but somehow the japanese have not. Have they suddenly figured out how to be great bankers? This is my roundabout way of saying that I find it difficult to believe that the financials have somehow bottomed now and that there are no shoes left to drop. Meanwhile a lot of the little O&G plays are doing well and so is Chesapeake. SLightly ot I havent listened to cc on SIL yet. It seems like just about all the news has been bad. I dont want to say things cant get any worse becuause they certainly can, but this has been a disaster for me as had I stuck with my original plan of diversifying with the silver stocks I would have done just fine. Instead silver has just about doubled and I have lost over well over 50% on SIL so far. Which is going to lead me to my latest rule which is never add more than twice to a losing position no matter how good it looks.

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