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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (30935)10/24/2000 8:34:37 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (2) of 436258
 
"Timely" has the same attitude toward gold that i have...something that wasn't deserving a look for a long time, but has begun to register on contrarian radar screens for some time now.

of course to no avail so far, as the new high in the ratio proves. however, i'd recommend a comparison of gold in '99-2000 to the Dow in '32-'33...the chart patterns are almost identical. while allowing for the outside possibility (i give it a 10% chance of eventuating) that a collapse low as predicted by Prechter has not arrived yet, i tend to think last year's low was a secular low. the proof's in the pudding: gold has been stable vs. the dollar, and has embarked on a huge rally in all other currencies.

the first sign of life as you call it may well be a 'discontinuous market event' as the carry trade goes bust.
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