America On-Line: will it survive ...? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: chenys who wrote (3093)	5/12/1997 11:44:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	of 13594

HI Chen: I heard tht money is runing into the mutual funds, and as long as that goes on the market won't do a serious crash..to many dollars chasing to few stocks, with all the consoladation, you get less stocks to chase..were it will peak is anybidies guess and if any one gets it right don't think that luck didn't have a part in it, like at the races..good handicappng can often let you pick winners, but an eliment of luck ( chance ) is always there and it can undo the best handicappers...I don't think we will see the same bull market like last year, the way to reconize that is with the IPOs..people are still skitish on the IPOs..and stong IPOs are the best indicator of confidence in the market, with that confidence the market does well..with out it she stalls..fear is not a big factor yet..and the market seems to be broadening out some, small and mid caps are begining to make some gains and thats a good sign..if the DJI goes down some but the rest of the market comes up..we are not in troble..if the blue chips keep going up and the mid and small caps keep going down..some kind of spill over will happen..but it won't be that long lasting..unless interest rates get way up.. high intersest rates could kill the market faster than anything else..so far so good..if you see the long bond go to 7.25 look out the big boys won't want to to play with stocks if they can safly double their money every 10 years in the Gov. bond market. The 87 crash followed some high interest rates..heck I remmber locking in some 10% CDs back then just before that crash. Last as for AOL going oppisit the DJI..it looks that way very often, but it's not just AOL..the techs and the blue chips have been out of sync a lot latly.. I belive a lot of this is the fund managers trying to beat the averages are dancing from one sector to another a lot latly..and they look confused..so the market is confused but it's not ready for a sell off yet. I do think greeny will jack up rates again this month..and the market will react in it's usuall maner of over reacting, then bouncing back. Jim

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