the key question is whether his vote polls over or under 50 percent. If more than half the voters are backing his opponent or are undecided, he's in trouble.
Endangered Incumbents by Dick Morris
"Off with their heads" seems to be the mood of the voters as the candidates enter the final lap of the 2002 races that will determine control of the Senate. Incumbents who shouldn't be in trouble are fighting for their lives, and challengers who should be nowhere are close on their heels.
Of the 33 senators whose terms expire this year, three have quit, one lost a primary and Bob Torricelli has vaporized. Of the remaining 28, nine - one-third - are stuck in tough races for re-election.
When an incumbent seeks re-election, the key question is whether his vote polls over or under 50 percent. If more than half the voters are backing his opponent or are undecided, he's in trouble. It's like asking someone if they will be married to the same person next year: An answer of "undecided" isn't exactly encouraging.
With that in mind, here's how the Senate races stack up. (I cite polls conducted in the past few days, mostly by John Zogby, the best in the business and one of the only pollsters who got the 2000 presidential election right.)
Likely Democratic Gains
Arkansas: Latest polls have GOP Sen. Tim Hutchinson tied at 45-45 with challenger Mark Pryor, son of former Sen. David Pryor. As an incumbent, that means Hutchinson is in a deep hole.
Colorado: Democratic challenger Tom Strickland, who almost won last time, has a 41-40 lead over GOP incumbent Wayne Allard. At 10 points under 50, don't sell Allard a life-insurance policy.
Likely GOP Gains
Missouri: GOP Rep. Jim Talent has been steadily gaining on Democratic Sen. Jean Carnahan, who took the seat her husband won posthumously in 2000. Behind by eight in mid-September, Talent now leads 47-41. No way Jean Carnahan should be in the Senate.
South Dakota: In a real kick in the teeth to Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, his South Dakota Democratic colleague Sen. Tim Johnson is trailing Republican John Thune by 45-43. Daschle's high liberal profile may be weakening his party in this conservative state.
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