2002 Picks (figured I should post this here; originally posted on Stock Attack II on January 2)
Well, declining earnings and a stubbornly high stock market have made my top picks for 2002 ... drum roll, please ... Drugs and Utilities! <ng>
That's right, a scan of the S&P 500 has come up with AEP, D, MRK and PFE as the most compelling values in the S&P at the start of the year. WM could probably be added to the list, since it missed the cut by less than 1% (I added MSFT at the start of this year under the same rule of thumb, and at least for this year, it turned out to be a good move).
The 2000 list - MO, WM, TOY and DCN - returned 43%. The 2001 list - SPLS, DELL, NWL and TXT - returned 31% (35% with MSFT). This year's list obviously may not do as well, but it sure seems to say that there's slim pickings out there. I follow this system in an IRA trading account, and hold some in my regular account as well.
It is based on the work of Ken Lee (Trouncing the Dow author), as modified by the exhaustive screens of Bob Stephenson at TrouncingTheDow.com (a site I happily send $200 to every year), and modified still further by the maniacal back-testers of the Motley Fool message boards.
Best wishes to all for a prosperous (and peaceful) New Year. |
