Sorry Jean, I like to keep my sources straight, but then I think I live in a twisted version of reality and I sometimes slip--I’ve done too much work for big technology companies like Oracle and Tandem. And working for smaller ones has only made things worse. I know people who have started a rumor and had it get to me. I repeat it back to the originator for their opinion. They laugh. It makes their day. But a rumor on Novell means that there will be winners and there will be losers. And I hate losing.
In a twisted, contrarian sort of way, by saying that Novell has no worth to any other company on the face of the planet, maybe I will again be proven wrong and a sagacious suitor will rise and take the vow. At the very least, I will be proven right, pyhrric victory and all that. And the contributions that insightful people, like David A. Lethe with his keen and unique understanding of Novell's channel and marketplace, and the ever formidable Eric Strohmeyer, help others who are new to Novell investing.
Jousting: Oracle vs. Microsoft
I run situational analyses of Microsoft’s NT in my darker moments. Not so much the technology, but its perceived/real impact on the marketplace. Especially with the release of BackOffice and SQL Server. SQL Server has the potential to really hurt Oracle, perhaps mortally. SQL Server is cheap and adequate for all but those applications that require significant scaling.
Oracle’s view of reality is much different, than, say Microsoft’s. The reason I point this out is that Oracle has been king of its domain for quite a while, in spite of IBM’s efforts with DB2. Informix, Sybase, and Ingres really haven’t been able to mount effective offenses. Now Microsoft comes on the scene. The fur will fly when these two cats get together. And, because of Computer Associates acquisition of Legent, Oracle got bumped from second place to third place among software developers. If you know Larry Ellison, you know he didn’t like being number two to Microsoft and being number three, humm, that won’t sit well. (Larry said of Computer Associates: Every ecosystem needs a scavenger).
So, would Oracle pick up Novell/Netware to regain position number 2 and to counter Microsoft’s growth with NT and SQL Server? In my view, Oracle has everything to lose with a strong, dominant NT/SQL Server. And Oracle could really use Groupwise. Oracle has spent millions fruitlessly developing productivity tools like Groupwise.
Any opinions? Technical insight? A different reality?
RM |
