Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed Message Board

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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Oblomov who wrote (30994)	10/24/2000 10:19:17 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 436258

that's a big mystery...for some reason, the JGOL needs a dollar gold bull market to get going. i think it's just a perception thing...note for instance that most SA gold miners are hugely profitable compared to their US peers. however, i have noticed that usually just prior to JGOL bull markets the spread between the Rand gold price and the JGOL tends to widen, just as it has done now. the huge '93 bull market was preceded by just such a widening of this spread...the JGOL quadrupled within a years time after the bull phase began. however, after the initial advance , the dollar gold price began to rally too. without that i don't think the advance would have been sustained. consider for a moment what a widening spread signifies: among other things, it means that gold's relative strength versus the dollar is improving. i.e. it is stable in dollar terms, while the dollar keeps rallying vs. other currencies, meaning gold rallies in those currencies. i believe that this is an early warning indicator. it would be nice to see some confirming strength in the XAU and JGOL next - before the PoG begins to move in dollar terms.

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