To start, when the retracement comes, and I hope it comes we will know it.
Certain stocks such as AOL, BRCM and QCOM have moved more than I expected already at this point. However, I think each of these stocks will be capable of moving $100 points under a melt-up scenario. Given they put in this type of performance then by allocating 30-50K to options I believe under a best case scenario I can leverage it (20:1) into a 1,000K play. I don't see much downside but even if I don't reach my target, a 250K play would be great.
When AOL was dancing in the $80's a few months ago I bought the shares and picked up a few April 120 calls (wish I bot more) you could get all you wanted then for $6-$10. I fully expect to close out these options for $100+ by April.
If you remember AOL last year, buying the options in DEC split adjusted cost $2.50 then selling from $30 to $50 or so as the stock went up into April then buying puts at the peak and making a seven bagger or so on the way down.
I think some of the "smart money" is thinking this way already. Last week the AOL thread was talking about the unknown buyer who bought a 1,000 contract block (if I remember correctly) of AOL Apr 180 calls. When I look at open interest I see some interesting things. To me a lot of the big boys are banking on a millenium melt up.
Option....Open int
00Jan 200 27,815
00Apr 120 23,820
00Apr 150 15,136
00Apr 180 4,947
IMHO |
