I agree with most of your post. The problem here is that the folks who get to be millionaires don't buy in at 20x book value. Those folks got in at $1, did the appropriate, detailed DD and have managed their portfolio accordingly. I've seen a ton of great technology - that's not enough to make a great company. This company has all the hallmarks of well intentioned novices at the helm.
First you get the hype, then the work to manage expectations, then the crash. It's a classic. You also see the big name leverage: MSFT, Satchi, carriers, board members. This is all great 'feel-good' material, but when you look at the business case in detail, you find a lot of risk. The big money players have the resources to do this -- face it, you didn't tend to the details when doing your homework -- that, not the sharks, put you on the rocks.
Have a very nice vacation. |
