Soon, this should reach near its 52 week high of 21,
because of some strong indications provided by the
technical and sentiment analyses. Here are the salient
points:
1. After the news was brought out in a readily
understandable format, there was a gap-opening up by
more than 2 points.
2. Its not the case that only laymen started understanding
the fact more vividly now, but the people-in-the-know
are holding half of the golden egg in their own hands
(50% insider holding).
3. If you look at the last few days' intra-day graphs,
looks like a constant, mega-buyer was sitting, first at
$14.80 level and then at $15.00 level. May be (who
knows) this could be one major institution doing the
buying now and the masses will only come to know about
it after a month in the Barron's "Increases in holdings"
column? Can someone confirm, if it is due to some
entity like Capital Trust? (spell?) Or may be, its by
one of the 100K account holders of the California
Technology Stock Letter by Michael Murphy (the
technology stock genius IMHO)? And, is it possible
then, that, we'll see PMAT as the Best Buy Ideas for the
month, next month?
4. A major market sell-off is unlikely before June/July, as
per the best market timer's model (who appeared on NBR
recently); so the mega-sentiment wise, tech investors
are not that worried right now (but are cautiously
optimistic...a great state to be in, for letting this
bull run continue...as per one of the great timers of
all times... Bernie Sheiffer of Options Research
Institute...IMHO Bernie's mind can spawn research worth
10 PhDs in US Stocks and Options at a moment's notice!).
All this provides a window of opportunity for some
stocks to maintain their bull run for a while, if they
are in a favorable sector...and semiconductor sector has
recently established that!
5. "Reduction of dielectric constant from the neighborhood
of 3.5 to 2 is not a trivial accomplishment, but a
significant one...and may be the path is laden with some
difficulties, but which isn't? And who makes big money
on a issue which is totally certain? Thats the general
public sentiment at this point. Also, what these other,
cash-rich, recently fat semis, like INTC, AMAT will
do?...just ignore the possibility of acquiring PMAT
while its still at the low level, since many issues are
not sorted out completely?? Or jump on it soon, to get
it at the bargain-basement price right now? And won't
the 50% holders will be too happy to comply to their
wishes, virtually slurping at the delicious premiums
right away? (..and to get on with their lives...in the
theme of "why should other guys have all the fun" as
seen on the net site there)? :-)
6. So many other good semis had a decent bull run recently,
and still_plenty_of_cash_rich_cautious_semi_buyer won't
ignore this issue. May be this is the reason the chart
is showing the gradual rise of the support level in the
last few days. Momentum crowd has marched in-and-out by
now in the above $16 range....now the leftovers are the
real long term supporters....those who are investing in,
after a cool thought? Or, may be some in_the_know
momt'm players still piling up?...if this is the case,
it has some real short-term bullish implications.
7. Risk-to-Reward ratio calculators may be favoring this
stock too: before news...around 12, after 15 !
Moreover, Michael Murphy has a huge following.
Obviously, he does an intense technical investigation
first, before bringing the story. I remember he had a
story on it last year. Does anyone here cares to
comment about his recent standing on it? (I wish my
sub'n did not run out now).
8. Recently shooting above 12, it just got exhibited by the
IBD tables. Many investment institutions will now be
able to locate it on their radar screens!
regards,
-/Sonny. |
