Hi Jay -
Re " a) I am feeling completely foolish for having liquidated so much of my EURO, CAD, AUD jumbo fixed deposits earlier and converting same to HKD so as to be able to play the Iraq War/gold/stock game. I have completely fubbed it;"
No, you got hit by an out-of-the blue event, like an asteroid. Not something that could be anticipated.
If you are still numerically positive for the year, you are doing great, since the money will now buy more HK property, more crude oil, more tech stocks, and for right now even more gold.
b) is a great insight. Just my thoughts - speculators might try this, but because of the world crisis (Iraq, SARS, etc.) many central banks would give them enough rope then whack the speculators. The US is likely to see this as a back door attack on the dollar zone. I could see letting the speculators make heavier and heavier bets, then China, US, and maybe Japan (possibly Taiwan too) all massively intervene to restore peg.
Speculators go broke, get investigated , maybe go to jail. |
