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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup

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To: Sharck who started this subject	7/19/2001 11:54:24 AM
From: besttrader	of 37746

6 more minutes till this rally ends on this news --> PHILLY FED comes out at 12pm. 8th consecutive reading below neutral expected, but improving; worst of regional manufacturing decline is past. Energy prices leave prices paid index volatile and rising. Profit squeeze as prices received have been falling since Oct. New orders still falling as June index fell to 4 mo low. With orders go shipments (sales). Employment lags orders with double digit declines since March. 6 month outlook continues to rocket higher. At 58.2 in June as new orders outlook jumped to 55.8. Big Picture The regional data are consistent with sectoral recession. The Philly index recovered from decade+ January low with expectation for slow continued improvement. Chicago plunged to the lowest level since 1982 in Jan and weighs more heavily in the direction of the national measure than the small Phil Fed region. The manufacturing sector moves in mini-cycles compared to the overall economy and the regional measures move in even shorter, more volatile cycles. Nonetheless, January's decade low in the NAPM and a continued read below 45 argues that the manufacturing recession continues as it provides a forceful pull on the overall economy.

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