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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 182.40+3.5%Jan 6 3:59 PM EST
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To: Jeff Vayda who wrote (31407)1/20/2003 2:51:41 PM
From: Jon Koplik  Read Replies (3) of 197105
 
More "observations" (from QCOM 2002 annual report) :

On page 38, in the section called (groan) :

"Market for registrant's common equity and related stockholder matters"

Here is the range of high and low share prices :

(remember that Qualcomm is on a (roughly) Sept 30 fiscal year, not a Dec 31 year)

......................... High ......... Low

Fiscal 2001

Q1 ................. 107.81 ...... 61.00

Q2 .................. 89.38 ...... 47.25

Q3 .................. 71.04 ...... 42.75

Q4 .................. 68.87 ...... 42.60

Fiscal 2002

Q1 .................. 62.49 ...... 38.31

Q2 .................. 53.34 ...... 31.03

Q3 .................. 40.35 ...... 24.49

Q4 .................. 31.39 ...... 23.21

*********************************************

In case you are not a numbers-patterns-noticing-kind-of-person ...

Each quarter had both a lower high AND a lower low, for the entire two year period.

(I knew it has been unpleasant to be long Qualcomm shares lately, but I was not aware of this "perfection" in the ratcheting-down process until I saw the latest annual report).

The good news (?) is :

Qualcomm's share price has broken out of this pattern since 9/30/02.

***********************************

Next point :

On page 61 of the 2002 annual report, in the section called "Concentrations"

(within Note 1. The Company and its significant accounting policies) :

"Revenues from international customers were approximately 70%, 65%, and 47% of total revenues in fiscal 2002, 2001, 2000, respectively."

Two observations on this :

1. For a company that does a lot of business internationally, a falling dollar BOOSTS U.S. dollar reported earnings.

2. For people who obsess over the fate of the U.S. economy (before they dare to purchase U.S. stocks) ...

With Qualcomm, what they should be obsessing over is :

Are they worried that growth has peaked out in China, India, Indonesia, etc. ?

*******************************

My guess : QCOM over $100 a share by 12/31/03

Jon.
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