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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (31436)	9/11/2000 11:25:23 AM
From: Eric L	of 54805

MB, << Almost, but the following month they increased less than 20% and that was off a relatively small base. Right or wrong, that's why I use April 1998 as the start of the tornado >> It is very difficult to make much meaningful out of following month to month sub growth in wireless. Too many variables, auditing of subscribers (FCC, SEC, here, and equivalents elsewhere). Also Christmas aftermath often devastating. Remember Qualcomm's warning after Q1 last year. Historical data useful for spotting some repeatable cycles. We will all be delighted with Decembers numbers. No need to push the panic button on January's or Q1 2001. Databases and reporting techniques for tracking sub growth are much faster and more sophisticated today than 2 years ago. GSMA reports faster than CDG who reports faster than UWCC. TDMA numbers (official) are still not in for Q@ for TDMA. GSMA contracts EMC (best in the business). I think UWCC uses "Joes Abacus". Maybe there will be a pleasant surprise when they fix "Joes Abacus" and final audited TDMA figures are in for Q2. They might have to adjust something in for the good Q1 numbers. << off a relatively small base >> Valid point. Projections for following year were however huge (I missed that one ... glad I did). - Eric -

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