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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (31399)	7/10/2008 3:18:43 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	of 78676

I did not know about NVDA plunge when I was writing this. Now that I read about it, I believe that the real good long term investment is NVDA instead of TRID. However, I would wait until their Q2 numbers are released, since I think they will be worse than expected with continued uncertainty about the replacement cost of faulty mobile GPUs. Of course, there is also a question of what is the long-term story with the GPU vendors. It is pretty clear that even higher powered GPUs are needed for a variety of PC applications, it is not clear though whether consumers are ready to pay for them and whether margins can be sustained. This is of course the risk of tech companies - the technology obsolescence and need to invent a better wheel again and again and again. NVDA was on top for quite a while, but there is not much to guarantee that ATI/AMD won't use the current situation to regain some market and mind share. There is strong brand recognition in the high gamer population, but the rest of the people could care less. And even gamer population is fickle long term. Just watching NVDA for now. Although it is arguably cheap.

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