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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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To: LindyBill who wrote (314465)	7/13/2009 3:13:13 AM
From: Nadine Carroll	2 Recommendations of 793926

"It's the Militia or Me" This is how the Shah fell. Different groups peeled away from him, and he was left with too narrow a base for support. Khamenei has always been tolerated at best by the urban middle class; it was the poor and the religious he depended on. If the religious are leaving him, if they are saying, "he's no longer a proper heir to the Imam," then he's in big trouble. Then you may see a Yazdi-Ahmedinejad-Khamenei faction with the Basiji Militai and the Revolutionary Guards against the Rafsanjani crowd, the Scholars of Qom, the urban middle class AND the religious people -- that's a narrow base, and military one. Watch the Revolutionary Guards. If they divide, the regime is in deep doo doo.

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