Reports of his pending demise
July 12, 10:27 PM
NATE HALE
Succession scenarios are always critical in any authoritarian government. If the transfer of power is planned and executed properly, the regime continues. But when problems arise, the dynasty's survival becomes less certain.
That's why the coming months in North Korea will be interesting, to say the least. According to Reuters, the communist government is almost certainly facing a leadership change, due to Kim Jong-il's declining health. Intelligence sources in Beijing and Seoul report that the North Korean dictator is suffering from pancreatic cancer, one of the deadliest forms of that disease. In the United States, the five-year survival rate for pancreatic cancer is only five percent.
The Reuters dispatch is based on a report by the South Korean broadcast network YTN, which spoke with ROK intelligence officials and their counterparts in the PRC. YTN said the cancer diagnosis was made last year, around the same time that Kim Jong-il suffered a major stroke.
That later illness incapacitated Kim for several months, and the North Korean dictator (reportedly) underwent brain surgery in connection with the stroke. Reclusive even in times of good health, Kim's disappearance from public view raised new questions about the line of succession in Pyongyang, and control of the DPRK's small nuclear arsenal.
Still, Kim Jong-il managed to confound medical experts--and intelligence analysts--who predicted that he would be permanently disabled by the stroke and unable to remain in power. Sure enough, the 67-year-old dictator resurfaced earlier this year, in video clips released by North Korea's state-run media. In that footage, Kim seemed to be suffering the effects of a stroke, with one of his arms remaining immobile. But, Mr. Kim was far from incapacitated, and his appearance at the Supreme People's Assembly in April was carried live on North Korean television.
However, the dictator's health remains anything but robust. The cancer report came after Kim Jong-il appeared pale and gaunt at another public appearance last week. For intelligence officials who joked about Kim trademark paunch (some referred to him as "the only fat man in North Korea), his recent physical transformation has been nothing less than shocking.
On the other hand, it's not quite time to write Kim Jong-il's obituary--at least not yet. Intelligence information the health of foreign leaders is notoriously suspect. The Central Intelligence Agency, for example, employs physicians who prepare detailed assessments on heads of state and other key personalities. I've met a few of them, and they're an extremely professional group. Unfortunately, their analysis is often based on nothing more than video evidence, still photos or second-hand diplomatic reports.
Occasionally, the data is a little bit better. In some cases, we manage to talk to doctors who treat foreign leaders, or electronic intelligence allows us to access other bits of medical information. But as any physician will testify, it's hard to make a definitive diagnosis without a detailed medical history, test results and other key elements of information. Regrettably, our "medical spooks" rarely have a complete medial file to draw upon, further complicating their work.
The limits of medical intelligence have been painfully evident in recent assessments on the health of foreign officials. Not only did Kim Jong-il recover from last year's stroke, but Cuba's Fidel Castro survived a supposedly life-threatening illness a few years back. True, El Presidente is no longer running the show in Havana, but he wasn't supposed to last this long. In fact, Castro's "impending" death was widely predicted by senior U.S. intelligence officers during his illness. And how many times have we heard that Osama bin Laden is on his last legs due to a kidney condition?
At this point, it's probably fair to say we really don't know the status of Kim Jong-il's health. If appearances are any indication, the North Korean despot is a sick man who may well have a terminal illness. Conversely, Kim may continue to confound the experts and live well beyond his predicted demise. After all, he has near-unlimited resources for health care. While even basic medicines are beyond the reach of most North Koreans, Kim Jong-il has an entire medical institute devoted to his care. Additionally, foreign physicians are flown to Pyongyang when the situation warrants. Kim's care during last year's health crisis was reportedly directed by a French doctor.
If the North Korean leader has pancreatic cancer, his medical team faces a nearly-impossible task. The median survival time after diagnosis is only three to six months, a statistic which raises more questions about that South Korean broadcast report. If the diagnostic time line is correct, it means that Kim Jong-il has already exceeded the life expectancy for most pancreatic cancer patients. Surviving for a longer period is not unprecedented--actor Patrick Swayze has lived 18 months since he was first diagnosed with the disease--but such cases are extremely rare.
While North Korea will never acknowledge that its leader is seriously ill, there will be limited hints about his condition. The most obvious would be another disappearance from public view, akin to the events of last year. Another would be the continued, accelerated "anointment" of his youngest son, Kim Jong-un as successor. Only last month, the younger Kim was elevated to a position on the Central Military Commission and designated the "Brilliant Comrade," both considered early steps in preparation for succeeding his father.
But if Kim Jong-il has only months to live, he won't have enough time to properly groom his son; moreover, there are concerns that key constituencies (read: the North Korean military) might not support an untested leader who hasn't reached his 30th birthday. Under that scenario, Kim's brother-in-law, Jang Seong Taek, might emerge as an interim leader. Like Kim Jong-un, Taek was also recently elevated to the Central Military Commission, and some reports suggest that he ran the country when Kim Jong-il was recovering from his stroke.
North Korea's only previous succession (in 1994) was a relatively smooth affair, as Kim Jong-il replaced his father Kim il-Sung. But that transition had been in the works for years, and Kim Jong-il was carefully groomed for the top job. This time around--assuming that the "Dear Leader" is terminally ill, the situation could be much different.
Reports of his pending demise (12 July 2009)
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