Ah, the perils of a big tent
BETSY'S PAGE
The Democrats have been very smart in the past two elections in putting up moderate candidates likely to win in districts usually won by Republicans. The only catch is that these congressmen are then a mite bit precarious if the mood shifts. So they have to maintain their viability and can't do that if they lay down for every Pelosi vote demand. And this sort of tension is starting to bubble up in the Democratic caucus over the health bill.
>>> Democrats who helped the sweeping climate change bill squeak through before jetting home for the July Fourth break got a surprisingly ugly homecoming, encountering a barrage of protests, attack ads and negative press. Police turned up at a local protest aimed at Rep. Allen Boyd (Fla.), a leader of the moderate Blue Dog Coalition. Freshman Rep. John Adler (N.J.) told a local paper he got shoved.
The bruising endured by the moderates — along with serious substantive concerns —prompted them last week to derail the planned Friday rollout of the health care bill. And it presents a continuing challenge to leaders hoping to wrap work on the package this month. "They are completely and totally rattled," one senior Democratic aide said of the centrists. "I've never seen them as bad as they are now."
....Rep. Mike Ross (D-Ark.), who chairs the Blue Dog health care task force, launched a pre-emptive strike against the three chairmen last week, warning that the overwhelming majority of Blue Dogs were prepared to vote against the health care bill unless major changes were made. Ross said previous attempts and meetings on the issue had failed to make the bill palatable to moderates, saying that there weren't enough cost cuts nor was there enough consideration given to rural areas and small businesses. Blue Dogs also have serious concerns about the proposed public insurance option, which they said must not be based on Medicare payment rates.
....Other moderates remain skeptical. Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.) said groups are already pressuring lawmakers back home both on the climate vote and on health care, and he said the pressure on the latter is about to ratchet up dramatically. "The pot is starting to simmer, and in a couple of weeks it'll be boiling," he said. <<<
It will pay to keep up the pressure on these guys.
They're especially tender now after many of them voted for the Waxman-Markey bill and now the Senate is getting skittish about when they'll vote for the bill and how it will look when they do.
Another concern is that the House will craft such a liberal bill that they'll have to jump off the cliff to vote for it and then all the important negotiations over the final version will be between a few key senators and the Obama administration. The final bill will be more moderate, as tends to happen once the Senate gets involved, but the Blue Dogs' votes would already be on record for the more radical version. That is what will happen with cap and trade and expect to see it again on health care.
>>> A major source of concern for the centrists is that the legislation crafted by the three liberal chairmen is so far to the left that the House is being left out of the real deal-making between the White House, the Senate and key interest groups.
The three House chairmen writing the bill have said they aren't bound by deals the White House and the Senate cut with drug companies, hospitals and other groups since they weren't included in the negotiations.
That has caused heartburn among Democrats from swing districts worried that they will again be asked to cast a tough vote on a bill many of them think is too liberal and is unlikely to become law — just as they were on the climate bill.
"I'm just looking for the bill to be in the mix in terms of what's realistic in terms of the final outcome," said Rep. Jason Altmire (Pa.), a Blue Dog and a New Democrat who voted against the climate bill. "If we put ours so far to the left, we're not going to have any influence in the final product," Altmire said.
And unless the House bill is close to what will ultimately be signed into law, "you are going to hang out a lot of those '08 freshman on two votes ... that are hard to explain," Altmire said. <<<
Pelosi is rather dismissive of their concerns.
>>> Pelosi, asked about concerns by some Members that the House would back a public insurance plan only to see it defeated in the Senate, dismissed them as typical. <<<
That won't help these guys if they're in tough reelection campaigns and their opponents are running ads about their having voted for increased spending and taxes on measures that they couldn't even read before they voted on.
Republicans can take heart that, even though they can't block bad bills as they make their way through the House, perhaps the House leadership will be sowing the end of the political career of some of these Democrats recently elected in red districts.
Betsy's Page (14 July 2009)
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