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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Dale Baker who wrote (31482)7/12/2008 2:04:06 PM
From: Madharry   of 78688
 
On thursday pm all the talking heads said the big news of the day would be ge reporting. friday pm I didnt hear one word about GE amid LEH, FRE and FNM. I expect that come monday talking heads will be aflutter about INDYMAC , the OTS, and congressman schumer. I cant see owning fre or fnm now. there are only 2 choices- lots of capital being raised by both institutions which will dillute existing shareholders big time, or the fed takes them over meaning equity gets wiped out and the fed runs the show which they are ill equiped to do. ok so My guess is between the two of them they need to raise $15-20 billion in equity. thats doable. only question is at what price. My guess is that if 30 banks and investment banks chip in $500 million every body goes home a winner except for existing shareholders. Bottom line is I dont believe they go belly up or that the fed takes them over, but they will have to raise capital and soon. I expect we will see an announcement within 2 weeks.
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