I good clue into why the resistance at 4. If all these are already
common stock, then they are part of the "float", right? So how
many shares are out there? As I recall the Travelers group invested
in convertable stocks exercisable at around $3-4? Maybe as the
price approaches $4, the lower-end certificates are being exercised?
If this is the case, then we may have to wait for large volumes of
these to converted to common stock. Knowing how many of the
convertable stocks there are (and on what time frame canm they be
exercised?), the PRLN trading volume, and estimating what percentage
of the trades involve conversions from preferred stock, can we
estimate when these shares will be largely exercised, and then
perhaps PRLN will be more free to move up?
On the other hand, investors at the Travelers group are not ones
to be in to getting short term gains. They certainly have a longer
term view for there investments (on a years timescale).
I think you are right in that the resistance has to do with (1)
with conversion of all those preferred shares there is a larger
float and (2) the float continues to increase as Travelers exercises
there options. We must still be patient and remember that as an
upside, PRLN is generating significant cash from this, strengthening
the ability to successfully complete trials, convey information,
bring prodcuts to market and make new discoveries.
Rick |
