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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup

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To: Sharck who started this subject7/20/2001 2:48:27 PM
From: Softechie   of 37746
 
14:30 ET Dow -40, Nasdaq -15, S&P -3.09: [BRIEFING.COM] It hasn't been spectacular, but the markets continue to lift off the day's worst levels. The Dow has just cleared the 10,560 level which had been a sticking point for the blue chip index throughout the session. The Nasdaq is currently working on 2031 which represents a former technical level of note constituting gap resistance/support. Total volume traded continues to be solid for a Friday with July's options expiration contributing to the market activity. Options expirations have a reputation for generating late day volatility and with the market acting the way it is this is likely a dynamic worth keeping in mind. DJTA -0.5%... DJUA -2.3%... SOX -2.5%... XOI +1.2%... BTK +2.5%... Nasdaq 100 -0.9%... S&P Midcap 400 +0.2%... Russell 2000 -0.1%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1462/1494... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1566/1905.

14:00 ET Dow -59, Nasdaq -23, S&P -5.25: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have lifted modestly off the day's worst levels but have yet to demonstrate a move with conviction in either direction. The price of crude oil is higher today on the back of speculation OPEC may cut back on its output. The front contract is higher by $0.70 (+2.8%) to $25.40 per barrel. Not surprisingly, transports are among today's worst performers as a consequence of price strength in crude. Oil weighs heavily among the expenses of this group and as a general rule the two tend to move counter to one another on an intraday move of any magnitude. DJTA -0.7%... DJUA -2.5%... SOX -2.8%... XOI +1.2%... BTK +1.9%... Nasdaq 100 -1.5%... S&P Midcap 400 +0.1%... Russell 2000 -0.1%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1413/1528... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1511/1911.

13:30 ET Dow -77, Nasdaq -29, S&P -7.09: [BRIEFING.COM] Since the last update, the Dow edged down to a new intraday low but failed to break down on creating it. Blue chip weakness has the Nasdaq drifting lower as well though the index has maintained a posture somewhat higher than the session's worst levels. Market internals are mildly bearish at this point on both the NYSE as well as the Nasdaq. Sell pressure on semiconductors is contributing to broader Nasdaq weakness with the SOX lower by 3.0% on the day. A less than encouraging forward outlook from PMC Sierra (PMCS -13.6%) last night is contributing to sell pressure on the group. DJTA -0.6%... DJUA -2.0%... XOI +1.4%... BTK +1.5%... Nasdaq 100 -1.5%... S&P Midcap 400 +0.2%... Russell 2000 -0.1%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1430/1471... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1474/1907.

13:00 ET Dow -53, Nasdaq -24, S&P -4.65: [BRIEFING.COM] Total volume traded isn't too bad for a Friday afternoon in the Summer. This is the day options for the month of July expire which is contributing to healthier volume than might be expected. The options expirations forces the rotation of capital into alternative investments (or cash) as the securities cease to exist after today. Conventional wisdom suggests options expiration sessions are volatile however today's activity runs counter to that sentiment. On the broader market, oil services issues continue to outperform. The OSX is posting a 4.2% gain on the session and is currently pushing to new intraday highs. As suggested in an earlier comment, Briefing.com sees this as a group worth watching as the index is severely oversold on an intermediate-term basis. Biotechs are also strong on a relative basis with the BTK higher by 1.5%. DJTA -0.4%... DJUA -1.9%... SOX -2.5%... XOI +1.2%... BTK +1.3%... Nasdaq 100 -1.5%... S&P Midcap 400 +0.1%... Russell 2000 -0.1%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1440/1433... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1480/1857.

12:30 ET Dow -65, Nasdaq -24, S&P -3.56: [BRIEFING.COM] Notably, both financials and homebuilders are in negative ground today. In fact, homebuilders are the worst performer among the S&P indices. Both groups have are sensitive to interest rates which raises the issue of where the Fed stands on monetary policy. Earlier this week, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan signaled the Fed may need to ease rates further in light of continued macroeconomic weakness. While his comments may have served as mild support for equities, many investors have been expecting an additional quarter-point rate cut from the Fed. In addition, the market is forward and with 275 basis points of easing already complete the market is well aware that the Fed has little room for further downside on rates. With the end of the easing cycle in sight, groups sensitive to interest rates may find themselves lacking for near-term catalysts in the form of monetary policy. DJTA -0.3%... DJUA -1.8%... SOX -2.6%... XOI +1.4%... BTK +1.5%... Nasdaq 100 -1.4%... S&P Midcap 400 +0.2%... Russell 2000 +0.1%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1417/1402... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1470/1804.

12:00 ET Dow -47, Nasdaq -19, S&P -3.64: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to hold in negative territory though close to the day's best levels. Investors have been working through a number of corporate earnings reports that, not surprisingly, have been mixed in terms of results and forward outlook. Dow component and technology bellwether Microsoft (MSFT -3.40) has been the big consideration for today. While the software giant issued a positive fourth quarter pre-announcement just weeks ago, the company was somewhat more cautious on its fiscal first quarter. While Microsoft said it expects to come up short of both topline and bottomline consensus estimates for the September quarter, the company issued full year 2002 estimates essentially in line with current estimates. Nonetheless, Salomon Smith Barney has downgraded Microsoft to Outperform from Buy on the heels of its fourth quarter report... Separately, Sun Microsystems (SUNW +0.84) also reported its fiscal fourth quarter results last night which the Street is largely viewing in a favorable light. The company reported earnings of $0.04 per share which was one penny ahead of the consensus. While SUNW refrained from providing any specific guidance for the September quarter, it did say it expects to generate enough revenue to more than break even on an operating basis. Following SUNW's report, Salomon Smith Barney has upgraded the shares to Buy from Neutral saying it believes the worst of the IT spending crunch is over and that it believes company-specific factors are starting to break SUNW's way... Outside of technology, oil-related equities are today's market outperformers. The XOI is higher by 1.5% today and the OSX is posting an impressive 3.8% intraday gain. Speculation that OPEC may cut its targets for oil production is contributing to broad-based strength in those groups today. DJTA -0.1%... DJUA -1.8%... SOX -1.7%... BTK +1.7%... Nasdaq 100 -0.8%... S&P Midcap 400 +0.4%... Russell 2000 +0.1%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1420/1350... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1460/1735.

11:30 ET Dow -40, Nasdaq -18, S&P -2.73: [BRIEFING.COM] It looks like the markets have settled in here and they continue to carry a negative bias. Market internals on both the Nasdaq and the NYSE have improved to the point where they read neutral to just slightly bearish in terms of advance/decline volume crossed by market breadth. Notably, despite this morning's sell off new highs continue to outpace new lows on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. This is one dynamic supportive of an intermediate-term, and perhaps intraday, bias to the upside. Notably, Microsoft (MSFT -3.58) is currently making new intraday highs at this point in trading. DJTA -0.1%... DJUA -1.8%... SOX -2.3%... XOI +1.3%... BTK +1.6%... Nasdaq 100 -1.1%... S&P Midcap 400 +0.3%... Russell 2000 +0.1%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1370/1352... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1425/1718.

11:05 ET Dow -28, Nasdaq -16, S&P -1.28: [BRIEFING.COM] The markets are looking quite a bit better here though the major averages continue to trade in negative ground. The Nasdaq has edged over initial resistance at 2027 and faces minor subsequent overhead in the area of 2040/45. Looking out further, the real level it would need to clear is 2085. Not surprisingly, the markets have been choppy this week with the major averages whipsawing in response to each new data point on corporate earnings. The results for this quarter have been mixed with pockets of industry showing limited growth while other areas express limited ability to make forward projections. The predictable consequence is divergent price activity across sectors as relative fundamental performance gets fairly priced into the markets. DJTA -0.2%... DJUA -0.8%... SOX -2.0%... XOI +1.5%... BTK +2.1%... Nasdaq 100 -0.5%... S&P Midcap 400 +0.5%... Russell 2000 +0.1%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1421/1189... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1433/1522.

10:30 ET Dow -26, Nasdaq -21, S&P -1.18: [BRIEFING.COM] One of the bigger things holding the Nasdaq back this morning (aside from that massive sell pressure on MSFT) is weakness in semiconductors. The SOX, which had shown notable relative strength yesterday, is lower by 2.9% at this point in the session. A less than encouraging forward outlook from PMC Sierra (PMCS -8.9%) last night is contributing to sell pressure on the group. On a more general point, trend reversals frequently occur roughly after the first hour of trading. Both the Dow and the Nasdaq have broken out of their prior intraday ranges to the upside which will be something worth keeping an eye on. DJTA -0.3%... DJUA -0.5%... SOX -2.9%... XOI +1.5%... BTK +1.5%... Nasdaq 100 -1.4%... S&P Midcap 400 +0.2%... Russell 2000 -0.2%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1253/1244... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1235/1564.

10:00 ET Dow -66, Nasdaq -35, S&P -7.25: [BRIEFING.COM] Both the Nasdaq and the Dow gapped lower at the open and both have traded in relatively tight ranges since. The Nasdaq has a very tight 13-point range to start the day as it has neither bounced off opening sell pressure nor extended it. While market internals are modestly bearish to start, the sell pressure is orderly and would likely look quite a bit better factoring out Microsoft's (MSFT -4.36) severe sell off. On the broader market, oil-related stocks continue to see buy interest on talk of OPEC production cuts and positive analyst comments from Banc of America and UBS Warburg. The XOI is +1.4% and the OSX is higher by 2.8%. It's probably worth keeping an eye on the OSX as the index is severely oversold on an intermediate-term basis. DJTA -0.5%... DJUA +0.1%... SOX -4.0%... XOI +1.2%... BTK +0.8%... Nasdaq 100 -1.9%... S&P Midcap 400 -0.1%... Russell 2000 -0.5%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1030/1255... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 966/1634.

09:45 ET Dow -53, Nasdaq -25, S&P -4.51: [BRIEFING.COM] While the major averages have opened lower across the board, the sell pressure to start the day is more limited than might have been expected. A good part of the Dow's drop can be attributed to weakness in Dow component Microsoft (MSFT -4.20) which is notably weak off the open. Outside of Microsoft, large cap tech leaders Cisco Systems (CSCO +0.13) and Sun Microsystems (SUNW +0.94) are demonstrating relative strength despite broader selling in technology. Oil-related equities are a notable pocket of strength to start with the XOI +1.7% and the OSX +2.1%. Biotechs are also experiencing buy interest with the BTK higher by 0.8%. NYSE Adv/Dec 1014/1204... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 973/1564.

09:10 ET: [BRIEFING.COM] The pre-market bias continues to be negative though it has improved versus levels earlier this morning. S&P futures at 1215, trade six points below fair value while the Nasdaq 100 pre-market indicator is lower by 26.2 points. Online auctioneer eBay (EBAY 64.40) delivered one of the more positive reports last night. The company not only topped second quarter consensus estimates by $0.03, it also said that consolidated net revenues in the second half of 2001 could be as much as $15-$30 million higher than previously projected. As a consequence, EBAY suggested pro forma diluted earnings per share over the next two quarters could be as much as $0.01-$0.02 higher than current consensus expectations. Finally, Scientific-Atlanta (SFA 35.08) has been getting hammered after it guided down estimates for the September quarter. The company now expects earnings per share in the range of $0.28-0.30 versus a consensus estimate of $0.47 EPS on revenues of $480 million which is 30% light of the consensus estimate for $702 million.

08:45 ET: [BRIEFING.COM] Pre-market activity has a negative leaning this morning. S&P futures at 1213, trade eight points below fair value while the Nasdaq 100 pre-market indicator is lower by 33.0 points. The downward bias comes on the heels of several earnings reports last night. Topping the list was Microsoft (MSFT 72.57) which unlike its positive fourth quarter pre-announcement a few weeks ago, was somewhat more cautious on the company's fiscal first quarter. Microsoft said it expects to come up short of consensus estimates for both the top and bottomline in addition to providing full year guidance on its business segments that was less than encouraging. On the heels of this report, Salomon Smith Barney has downgraded the shares to Outperform from Buy. Separately, Sun Microsystems reported its fiscal fourth quarter results which the Street is largely viewing in a favorable light. The company reported earnings of $0.04 per share which was one penny ahead of the consensus.

08:30 ET: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures at 1214, trade 7 points below fair value while the Nasdaq 100 pre-market indicator is lower by 33.0 points. No significant change to the pre-market tone since the last update.

08:05 ET: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures at 1213, trade eight points below fair value while the Nasdaq 100 pre-market indicator is lower by 36.3 points. Pre-market activity carries a negative bias on the heels of MSFT's report last night.

06:44 ET: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures trading at 1212.30, 8.7 points below fair value, Nasdaq 100 futures trading at 1677, 30.0 points below fair value. The 30-year bond is up 6 ticks at 5.513%. The dollar is a tad firmer against the yen, but weaker against the euro.

06:43 ET: FTSE -1.42%, DAX -1.68%: [BRIEFING.COM] European stocks under heavy pressure. Technology underperforming yet again, with phone-equipment stocks leading the way lower following news from Vodafone that it will cut spending on new networks. Software stocks such as S&P have also been pressured by Microsoft’s announcement that revenue growth in the current quarter would slow on the back of slumping PC demand. PC concerns have also weighed on semiconductor names such as ASML and STMicrolectronics.

06:43 ET Nikkei closed%, Hang Seng +0.18%: [BRIEFING.COM] Asian shares failed to make a significant move in either direction last night. Overall interest was also dampened with Japan closed for holiday. Taiwan managed to gain some ground on reports of better bargain hunting. A reversal in banking shares also helped, while semiconductor stocks were mixed. Korean stocks were dragged down by Samsung Electronics, which reported that second quarter semiconductor sales fell 27%. Hong Kong closed slightly higher as China-related stocks rebounded from recent losses.

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Close Dow +40.17 at 10610.00, Nasdaq +30.42 at 2046.59, S&P +7.31 at 1215.02: [BRIEFING.COM] There was a little bit of something for everybody in today's market... There was good news and bad news; reason to be hopeful and reason to be pessimistic... If you tuned in early to the market, you would have been able to surmise that participants were focused on good news and feeling hopeful... If you tuned in late, you might have gotten the impression that participants were focused on bad news and feeling pessimistic... The end result was that the market finished the day with a modest gain, but well off its highs, which seems only fitting given the myriad views on where the market is headed in coming months... Driving the buying action early on was the favorable response to earnings news from IBM (IBM -0.28), Nokia (NOK +2.51) and Dell Computer (DELL +1.18)... In one way or another, each company provided investors with a reason to believe the worst has passed, or is about to pass, with respect to discouraging earnings news... Accordingly, there was some aggressive bargain hunting activity in the tech sector at the opening bell that, ultimately, spread to other areas... Before long, the Dow was up more than 100 points, the Nasdaq was up more than 60 points, and the S&P was up more than 16 points... While there was a bullish bias for most of the morning, buyers lost their conviction as the day progressed in the wake of a weakening financial sector, a dour regional manufacturing report, and a realization that the earnings news heard from the aforementioned companies was good, but not good enough to convince investors that the market is out of the woods just yet... Subsequently, the market fell prone to profit taking activity in the afternoon trade that was as widespread as the buying interest seen earlier... At one point, the Dow and S&P slipped into negative territory, and they would have ended there if not for a late burst of buying activity... Throughout the session, the market's main pockets of strength were in the semiconductor, oil drilling and homebuilding industries... The latter was today's best performing group as it rode the wave of an impressive earnings report from D.R. Horton (DHI +1.93) that was accented by increased earnings guidance for Q4, FY01 and FY02... The laggards of note included the insurance, media, and financial stocks, specifically the banks... Ahead of its earnings report after today's close, Microsoft (MSFT +2) was the Dow's leading component and was followed by Caterpillar (CAT +1.52) and Intel (INTC +1.07)... For a full lineup of companies scheduled to report their results, be sure to visit Briefing.com's Earnings Calendar... SOX +4.9%... XOI +1.4%... Nasdaq 100 +1.7%... S&P Midcap 400 +0.4%... Russell 2000 +0.8%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1773/1264... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2130/1513
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