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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions?
MRVC 9.975-0.1%Aug 15 5:00 PM EST
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To: Dan Ross who wrote (3179)4/30/1997 2:21:00 AM
From: Dan Spillane   of 42804
 
MRVC earnings: "Negative whisper" confirmed by market action...

First, forget for a moment all I have described in the past with regard to MRVC's fundamentals. This is a discussion of what the market -- the share price action -- has predicted for MRVC...and I'm afraid it has predicted (or "whispered") disappointment. If the market is correct in its expectations for disappointment, we will see just how much disappointment is present on the morning of April 30th. Here's what the market says now:

1) A disappointment similar to that which occurred at 3Com Corporation is expected. The drop in MRVC shares has corresponded in large part with those of 3Com Corporation, since many consider the companies to be similar.

2) Disappointing longer-term growth is also expected for MRVC, as the market has disavowed estimates of growth for MRVC's core products (based on PE/G ratios). According to the market, MRVC's success is not expected to correlate with estimates of growth given by networking sector analysts as far as the Fast- and Gig- Ether markets are concerned.

3) Disappointment is expected concerning earnings. Short interest has grown since positive statements by MRVC's CEO were made. Market action leading up to earnings has been flat, at best -- confirming no "positive whisper" numbers were circulating.

So...some will say MRVC will meet or beat .17/shr, but the "whisper" says an earnings disappointment will occurr. If the whisper were positive, a run-up on some volume would have occurred. Instead...low-volume, flat price action confirms a "negative whisper" for MRVC earnings.

Dan
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