If the results were so good, what happened to VRTX stock???
Also if you look at the SD tribune story, what the VRTX CEO says about a superior side effect profile does not support the clinical data on side effects by his companies own admission. BID for Viracept and the other PIs will already be in use by the time VRTX gets to mkt if it gets to mkt, so the dosing advantage that all josh would wants us to believe is already faklse as is the cross-resistance issue. I just don;t see this drug being a major player at this time, even if it does turn out to be equivalent to Viracept (which the data already disproves- which has caused VRTX stock to go down, but it did not make AGPH go up). The most optimistic perspective is, that there will be a palce for VRTX in this PI mkt if they can get the drug approved, IMHO I think they will in mid to late 99. If I had any money left and AGPH was still in the mid-high 50s I would buy some VRTX also.
I think it is pre-mature to start the canabalism by good all josh at this time. The PI mkt could approach 5 billion in 2000, excess of that if dual PI therapy becomes standard which IMHO it will be, and then it would be wise to have been bullish long term on VRTX and AGPH.
However would I buy VRTX tommorrow, no! Because the real runnup in the stock ( if the data at the higher doses greatly improves and it looks like VX-478 has the potential at being at least equivalent to nelfvinavir) will be the same pattern as we saw with AGPH, we still have lots of time to play VRTX if they can come up with more compelling data. Now if you look at the current situation with AGPH, and compare the market cap of AGPH and VRTX (or 95% of other biotechs for that matter), AGPH is a screaming buy. Unless you don't want to own a profiatble biotech. 97% of the industry still are not profitable except the well known-house hold names (Amgen, etc...)
I hope no one was stupid enough to get scared out by the same old stories as this summer when we hit the same price levels (58-62) only to rebound to $113 (56 1/2) a few months later. |
