Tom, in the last two years we have had so many financial calamities, and the only place where gold was "heaven" was in those countries where they had major currency devaluations, and until the next one, even there Gold is "dead money".
As for the economy, I am not as sanguine as you are, I am not worried so much about our own economy and market (and god forbid, if they manage to get some Social Security money in the market, then stock "will never" see another bear market (VBG). But I am worried about the deflationary forces in play, which IMHO, will continue to be in play until the engine of growth of world economy (Asia and other less developed countries) start growing again at above par (5% to 7%?) rate. We need an increase in the world consumer society to maintain growth even here at home. Thus my long range forecast, while not containing any "Armagedon" does have a market paralleling the period of 1966 to 1982, where for 16 years we were in a broad trading range of 500 to 1000 on the Dow. If we get through the next few years without monetary reflation and thus avoid future inflation, I do not see any major moves for gold.
As for the Arizona people, they are still peeling their onions as far as I know, if they quit their habit of being "Mexican Generals" (never finishing their revolutions), there will be ample time to jump on the next platinum ship...
Zeev |
